Condi vs. Hillary: The Next Great Presidential Race

Setting the Stage

"I, Hillary Rodham Clinton, do solemnly swear that I will faithfully execute the office of president of the United States and will, to the best of my ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, so help me God."

On January 20, 2009, at precisely noon, the world will witness the inauguration of the forty-fourth president of the United States. As the chief justice administers the oath of office on the flag-draped podium in front of the U.S. Capitol, the first woman president, Hillary Rodham Clinton, will be sworn into office. By her side, smiling broadly and holding the family Bible, will be her chief strategist, husband, and copresident, William Jefferson Clinton.

If the thought of another Clinton presidency excites you, then the future indeed looks bright. Because, as of this moment, there is no doubt that Hillary Clinton is on a virtually uncontested trajectory to win the Democratic nomination and, very likely, the 2008 presidential election. She has no serious opposition in her party. More important, a majority of all American voters ' 52 percent ' now supports her candidacy.1

The order of presidential succession from 1992 through 2008, in other words, may well become Bush, Clinton, Bush, Clinton.

But if the very thought of four ' or perhaps even eight ' more years of the Clintons and their predictable liberal policies alarms you; if you see through the new Hillary brand ' that easygoing, smiling moderate; if you remember what a partisan, ethically challenged, left-wing ideologue she has always been, is now, and will always be, then you can see what the future holds.

That 's exactly the kind of president Hillary Clinton would be.

But her victory is not inevitable. There is one, and only one, figure in America who can stop Hillary Clinton: Secretary of State Condoleezza "Condi" Rice. Among all of the possible Republican candidates for president, Condi alone could win the nomination, defeat Hillary, and derail a third Clinton administration.

Condoleezza Rice, in fact, poses a mortal threat to Hillary's success. With her broad-based appeal to voters outside the traditional Republican base, Condi has the potential to cause enough major defections from the Democratic Party to create serious erosion among Hillary's core voters. She attracts the same female, African American, and Hispanic voters who embrace Hillary, while still maintaining the support of conventional Republicans.

This is a race Condi can win.

And Hillary cannot offset these losses of reliable Democratic constituencies with other voting blocs. White men don't like her. That won't change. And there is nowhere else for her to pick up support. It 's simple: With Condi in the race, Hillary can't win.

The stakes are high. In 2008, no ordinary white male Republican candidate will do. Forget Bill Frist, George Allen, and George Pataki. Hillary would easily beat any of them. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain Either of them could probably win, but neither will ever be nominated by the Republican Party. These two are too liberal, too maverick, to win the party's support; their positions are too threatening to attract the Republican base. Jeb Bush Too many Bushes in a row make a hedge. He's not going anywhere. And Austrian-born Arnold Schwarzenegger can't run. In the next election, none of the usual suspects can stop Hillary. Without Condi as her opponent, Hillary Clinton will effortlessly lead the Democratic Party back into the White House in 2008.